Championship weekend is looming in College Football, and one of the biggest questions going into it is the 12-0 Florida State Seminoles, who are playing for the ACC Championship on Saturday vs Louisville. Florida State has been one of the best teams all season, going undefeated during the regular season and defeating contenders such as Clemson and LSU. However, there are big questions surrounding the 4th ranked Seminoles, as they have lost their leader and one of their best players in their Quarterback Jordan Travis for the entire season.
Travis, who was the ACC Offensive Player of the Year, had 27 Touchdowns to 2 Interceptions before going down with a nasty broken leg in a game vs. North Alabama on Nov. 18. Florida State would then go on to win that game 5813 and then beat rival Florida 24-15 to lead up to the showdown vs. Louisville this weekend. Travis, a redshirt senior, is therefore ending his career as his next chapter will most likely be in the NFL. The College Football playoff only features the top four teams in the nation this year before expansion to 12 next year, and one major question is if the Seminoles, who would be likely one of up to three major conference champions if they beat Louisville, make the playoff despite being a considerably worse team without Travis in the lineup.
The answer to this question is big time depending on what happens in other games in my opinion. If the favorited teams in Michigan, who are 24-point favorites over Iowa, and Georgia, who are 5-point favorites over Alabama win, then the path will be clearer for FSU. They will be competing with a 1 loss Texas team, who is expected to easily beat Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship, the winner between Fridays Washington vs Oregon game for the Pac-12 title, and 1 loss Ohio State, who just lost to Michigan last week and is not playing this weekend. If Washington wins the path will be pretty clear for them, as they would be undefeated and hard to leave out, but Oregon winning will make things a bit tougher. Either way, the Pac-12 is expected to hold the 3 seed in the College Football Playoff, and it’s hard for them to get higher.
The 4th spot will then be likely between who the committee sees as the best between 1 loss Texas, undefeated FSU without Travis, and 1 loss Ohio State. In my opinion, as hard as that will be to decide, I think Texas has the upper hand with a solid resume and conference championship, however it would not be surprising to see Ohio State get the nod, as the committee has showed to respect their resume a lot in the past and they have only lost to the #2 team, where as Texas had lost to #13 Oklahoma.
If Florida State does not win convincingly against Louisville, its tough because you rarely see an undefeated Power 5 champ left out, but I do not think they will make the College Football Playoff. Texas is the much more dangerous team at this stage, because despite losing star Running Back Jonathan Brooks, they have a well-rounded team who can beat anyone. They also have a better win in Alabama than anyone FSU has played, and would be a conference champ as well. It would be unfortunate for the Seminoles, but for the competitiveness of the playoffs they sadly will have to be left out, unless they look dominating without Travis and backup QBs Tate Rodemaker and Brock Glenn prove they are threatening to one of the top three teams. Where it gets tricky is if #8 Alabama pulls the upset vs Georgia, and then the committee will have a lot of decisions to make.
If Alabama beats Georgia, than you likely will have Michigan as the #1 seed, and it will come down to who wins between Oregon and Washington as #2. If Washington wins they are undefeated and clearly #2. If Oregon wins it becomes even more convoluted. The committee will need to decide between 1 loss Georgia, 1 loss Alabama as the SEC champs, 1 loss Texas who beat Alabama, 1 loss Oregon as the Pac 12 champs, and undefeated FSU. In this scenario FSU being undefeated helps them, as the committee might see that and say they deserve to be in, but they for sure have to take Texas if Alabama gets in being an SEC champ. This will lead the last spot to be decided between Georgia, FSU, and Oregon, and Georgia being the #1 team most of the season has a big advantage. It will be hard to chose between them and FSU but I don’t see them picking Florida State unless again they look dominating.
It is an unfortunate turn of events for Florida State because they have looked like one of the four best teams all year, but it is hard to think they will compete with any of these teams without Travis and with backups. I believe sadly their only path to the College Football Playoff is for them to dominate Louisville and show they are the same team, but the Cardinals are 10-2 and show a lot of fire power of their own, so it is hard to think that can happen. It has been an awesome season for them and Coach Mike Norvell, but sadly, in my opinion I don’t see much of a path for them to make it, which is shocking with a 13-0 team.
